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Mark Sibthorpe on tough times ahead for Google

Written by Mark Sibthorpe Saturday, 20 October 2012 12:27
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I am predicting some tough times ahead for Google.

 

They were seriously spanked recently when Samsung lost a Patent battle to Apple.

 

And now they risk another dressing down when they make their eWallet  announcement to compete with Isis planned launch next week. Success or failure, this is going to be spectacular. People in the know are betting on the latter however, as Google have botched their project having made many missteps and have a lot of factors stacked against them:

 

1. Security issues: widespread publicity over its security issues;
2. Launch offers to compete with Groupon. Why would any company want to compete with this company. Yikes!!
3. Based on NFC: PayPal says NFC = not for commerce, NFC devices have made very few inroads and cannot possibly be in place before 2017, and Walmart are openly hostile towards NFC;
4. Sprint, Googles longtime partner may be working on its own wallet;
5. Merchants are 100% behind www.mcx.com and likely see this as working in harmony with Apple Passbook. Passbook is Apple's eWallet, a container for holding vouchers, coupons, boarding passes....
 
Both Google and Isis will be making announcements next week regarding their eWallets, but it is Google that stand to lose big if their announcement does not offer a real answer to Apple's Passbook.
 
That said, with both solutions based on NFC we can likely predict underwhelming results as there are few NFC handsets in the market, and low NFC device penetration (less than 1.7% according to MasterCard).
 
What will this do to Google's share price?
 
Apple dissed NFC and went with QR codes instead, something merchants love because it is open and consumers have it free on all smart phones.
 
Good move Apple.
 

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