Political forecasting: polls versus betting markets

Written by Ashwin Rattan Saturday, 10 March 2012 17:14
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Prof. Leighton Vaughan Williams is Professor of Economics and Finance, Director of the Betting Research Unit and Director of the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.

In this article he looks at the 2008 US presidential race to assess the relative merits of polls and betting markets as forecasting instruments.

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